On the Contrary

A real analysis of Afghanistan is that it is a civil war.  The players are Afghans who want to move forward, and the Taliban who want to move backward, with pot stirring by Al Qaeda.  I want you to think hard here.  Vietnam was the same problem with those who wanted a free Vietnam (mostly different warlords who had control of different areas), and those who saw Ho Chi Minh as the national leader, with the Viet Cong stirring the pot.  And of course, they didn’t like us very much.  But here is the part I want you to focus on:  We had 500,000 troops in the country to pacify the country and we failed.  Ask yourself how could 500,000 Americans and the whole South Vietnam military  not defeat the North Vietnamese?  Hint:  The answer is not in military strategy.

It is that we poorly understood the real motivations of the culture and we tried to superimpose our ideas about their future on them.  I could go into some deep analysis of different cultures and their xenophobia, but think instead about trying to tell your teenager how to live his/her life.  Your advice is good and wise, and yet they totally reject it.  They reject it because it is their life and they have to find their own way.  It is critical to their own identity of who they are.  Do you see the analogy here?  We are making the same mistake in Afghanistan that we made in Vietnam.  Its their destiny and as much as we think we know the right path for them, they are going to have to work it out for themselves, as painful as that may be.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel.  Just a few more troops and we will pacify the countryside and then democracy will flourish.  We just need the right leader and things would be different.  These are the rationalizations of the Vietnam war and we are seeing it all over again. Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal warned in a confidential assessment that he needed additional troops by next year or the conflict “will likely result in failure.”  I wonder if it occurred to him that even with more troops it will likely result in failure also?

General McChrystal, or those who support this war in the military, leaked this report because they didn’t like the fact that President Obama may actually be asking the right questions.  He has said that he will not commit more troops unless he thought we really had a plan that would work.  Apparently they haven’t convinced him yet.  What I see is a repeat of the military thinking that failed us so disastrously in Vietnam.  These guys are good Americans and they want to solve a problem.  But they have a one-dimensional view of the problem.  The only light at the end of tunnel is one that is held by Afghans, not Americans.

So what is the way forward?  Are Pakistan and Afghanistan intimately linked?  If Afghanistan becomes a Taliban stronghold will it be the home of terrorism?  Is it that simple?  I don’t think so.  We have an arrogance that makes us think we can control another country’s destiny.  We actually think we know what is best for them and we can control it.  Should I remind you again of the teenager analogy?  The last time we went down this road it cost 58,000 lives and now we recognize that there was no national strategic interest there.  We are only at 4000 and counting now.  Will it take another 54,000 before we get the message?  I hope not.