On the Contrary

Let’s just say I decided to run for public office.  Now one has two choices here:  One can be a values candidate, and by values, you can stand up for what you actually believe, or you can be a poll candidate.  A poll candidate tries to find what the most voters want and then gives it to them.  Pandering to the masses is another way to say this.  There are two forces pushing you toward a poll candidate.  First is the idea that you are elected to represent your electorate no matter how misguided their ideas might be.  Somehow or other, that got ingrained in our idea of American democracy.  The second one is that is where the money is.  If you do what others want, they will pay you handsomely.  It is called campaign contributions.

The problem with being a poll candidate is that once you are elected, you are without a firm understanding of your beliefs to guide your decision making, except of course to take another poll.  Robert Redford in the movie The Candidate got it exactly right when he reshaped his campaign to gather the most support, but no longer knew who he was and his famous line after winning the election, “Now what do I do?”  We see this now in our Congress where they are afraid to even make modest changes to anything for fear that there could be a populist backlash.

On the other hand a values candidate has a basic understanding of who he/she is and what they believe in.  We hear voters bemoan the fact that they can’t trust a candidate because he runs on one thing and then does another (a poll or lobby candidate).  Many candidates start out as values candidates, but like Robert Redford, the process of actually getting there corrupts them.  The game is about getting money and to get money one has to cater to the needs of those that have it.  We see it all the time at the local, state, and federal level.  At the local level candidates become captives of real estate interests, at the state level where they become captive of the no new taxes motto, and at the federal level add no new taxes with big government is the problem.

I would be a values candidate.  I would stand up for what I think this country needs to do to fix itself and I would not be shy about going against populist trends.  Here is what I think needs to be done:

• We need a new stimulus package that is focused on jobs.  Forget the deficit right now and get the economy jump started on things that will enhance our ability to compete in the world market in the future.  There will be no tax cuts in this bill.
• We need strong banking reform that makes no institution too big to fail.  When and if we ever bail out an institution it will be for our long term benefit and there will be strong conditions for changing the institution and the reasons for its problems
• There will be at least a $1 gas tax increase to start a real move to alternate energy.  Nothing else works but the pocket book and this money could start to help us get off our addiction on oil whole reinvesting in our future
• Health care would have a very strong public option and the funding would be taxpayer based, not employer based.  Trying to fund this by cuts out of Medicare or some other clever gimmick is just pasting over our moral responsibility with a promise for a free ride
• There would be a massive program for a national high-speed rail to offer a alternative to airlines and to increase our ability to move goods, services, and people throughout the country in a cost effective and energy efficient way
• There would be a consistent program to help the struggling alternate energy industries.  It would allow consistent tax breaks and incentives to start a vigorous industry to complete with the Chinese
• Education is our seed crop for tomorrow.  We have to start finding ways to make it affordable for everyone without massive loans.  In the end, most four year public institutions would have minimal charges
• End the war on drugs.  Some need to be illegal, but most need to be legalized and controlled.  The cop and robber approach to our drug problem is a disaster
• Immigration and our treatment of illegal immigrants is a disgrace.  We need a realistic guest worker program that is not at the whim of some lobby group that gets threatened and then screams the sky is falling.  I would run on a platform of Lou Dodds is an idiot
• Our approach to law and order is also a national disgrace.  We have the largest incarcerated population in the world, and we are wasting precious resources on throwing people away.  No doubt some need to be locked up forever, but most need help, not heaped on the trash pile of society.  Do I mention I would do away with capital punishment?
• Did I mention that I would make government a whole lot more transparent?  If we do something bad, then it is for everyone to see.  No more hiding behind the State’s Secret Act on torture and eavesdropping

Bottom line is that I would raise your taxes and make you tighten your belt.  I would challenge the status quo and knock over a lot of apple carts.  My focus would not be on finding scapegoats, but in finding solutions.  Would you vote for me?  Of course not.  And that is precisely why we are in the predicament we are in.  We only vote those who tell us what we want to hear.

The House voted on the energy bill, better known as the our first attempt at managing climate change.  The key is a cap and trade program with ever decreasing allowable carbon emissions.  But the vote was close (219-214) with 44 Democrats voting against it.  Republicans called it a tax (and therefore an evildoer), and the 44  Democrats who voted against it were protecting coal states and their fear that producing energy by coal would be less competitive.  Well as one would say, no duh.  The idea that we can solve our energy problems without using the incentives of the market place that punishes hurtful and damaging processes is understood by everyone, but for the 44 Democrats, just not in my backyard.  Don’t you just love short term thinking?

What is the alternative boys and girls?  How are we going to cut our greenhouse emissions unless, oh dare I say it, we cut our greenhouse emissions?  But it will hurt businesses and raise prices to consumers lament Republicans and these Democrats.  No it really won’t.  What it will do is start to realign the economy toward other sources of energy.  Of course there will be winners and losers.  But what these vote no politicians are saying when they say it costs too much is that the status quo is okay.  We don’t need to change anything because change could be painful.  What a bunch of wimps.  But with wimpishness, there is also gross hypocrisy.  The guys that think the market place solves all problems don’t want to use the market place on this one because, well, change would hurt their contributors.  The country be damned.

It is the same with health care reform.  “We can’t afford it.  It will drive the deficit to new heights.  With a government system, your employer will drop or lower your coverage.”  Just where do you think health care is headed?  Well I will tell you , you midget brains:  Higher costs and more and more employers dropping their coverage.  So we should do nothing or just tinker at the edges?  I hear about the horror stories of all the other industrialized nations that have gone to a single payer system, but I keep wondering why their infant mortality rate is lower and their citizens live longer.  Must be the horrible medical care they get.  Maybe it is because we have easier access to guns so we die younger because we shoot each other.  I really like the conservatives idea that kids should be allowed to go to college packing heat.  It certainly will lower health care costs since they will die young and not be burdening our system in their old age.  Let’s face it, we can’t afford not to do it (universal health care).

I think what amazes me the most is that the nay sayers really don’t offer any alternatives.  As though down the road all these things will fix themselves.  Reminds me of that Bobby McFerrin song, “Don’t Worry, Be Happy”.  Here is the thing I really don’t understand:  We have tried it the conservative way for the last 20 years and things are just getting worse.  Can’t we just try a new approach, and if it doesn’t work, the Demos will be swept out of office and we can go back to the old ways?  You conservatives have got us to where we are, so trying the progressive solutions for a couple of years won’t destroy the country.  What have we got lose?  Oh, I forgot.  You might become irrelevant.

I was having a discussion the other day with one of my conservative friends (that is all we have up here in self-serving thinking land).  The topic was the approaching California meltdown.  My opinion was fairly simple.  We have to decide what it is that is important, and then gut up and pay for it.  Their opinion was that the whole problem is waste in government.  Then I got an earful about how California State workers have too many benefits. I bet that would be a surprise to them as they are about to be forced to take another day of furlough while no one is being asked to raise taxes. So I asked them to give me an example.

I was told a story about one of their friends who worked for the State and when this person went on travel, used their mobile home and made a bundle because they got all this per diem while staying in her mobile home.   I pointed out that because it was more cost effective for most business and agencies to pay per diem instead of collecting receipts for meals and incidentals, the mobile home had nothing to do with it.  They then claimed, oh no, this person also got a per diem for her lodging.  When I pointed out that even the State, like the Feds, requires a receipt for lodging (and establishes maximum rates by locale), I was told I was wrong.  So based on this one fairly inaccurate description of someone gouging the system, the self-serving conclusion is that is where the problem is.  Once again it is those evildoers.

I wish it were that simple. One person’s waste in another person’s life line.  Sure there is inefficiency in government and I am all for rooting it out, but it is not the root cause of our problems.  But, and this is the moral of this story, the focus is on what they want to believe, not what the reality is.  They all think they pay enough and if it costs more for what they want, then it costs too much.  I think we can’t continue down this road and there is no free ride.  Sure there are smarter ways of doing things and we all know government can be improved, but failure of all of us to step up to the plate and realize that gutting education, infrastructure spending, help for the helpless, because it cost too much is a path to disaster for all of us.  Failure to make changes in the status quo because it costs too much is a quick trip to oblivion.

I think it is time for a reality check.  In America we only seem to remember the last problem as long as it personally affects us and then it is forgotten to come back and bite us another day.  Take ex-Vice President Cheney.  Here is the guy who had the memos and intelligence to prove WMD and an Al-Qaeda connection in Iraq and now we are listening to him on the efficacy of torture?  Oh well what can I say?  More importantly have we missed the lessons of our latest problems as things seem to be abating and we have changed nothing,  Here are some things that I think are patently obvious or as one of my math professors used to say, glaringly obvious to the casual observer, but totally being ignored by the mainstream, media or otherwise:
•    Economy – On Tuesday there was an article in the New York Times that the economy might be getting better (Markets Rise on Consumer Optimism).  Simon Johnson in his Baseline Scenario blog noted that “…among the people I talk with on Capitol Hill, there is a very real sense that business is returning to usual; certainly, the lobbyists are out in force, they want what they always want, and it’s hard to see many of them as seriously weakened.”  If this is correct then nothing has really changed and we still have a fundamentally flawed market and banking system.  But I don’t think they have it right.  I think the worst is yet to come.  Those on Wall Street are all patting themselves on the back because the banks haven’t failed, but the U.S. is up to its eyeballs in debt bailing them out and they have not been restructured.  They are still too big to fail which is how we got here in the first place.  Almost every state is facing cutbacks and layoffs.  More and more mortgages are defaulting as people lose their jobs.  I think what we have is that the middle class and working people are continuing to suffer and that suffering is getting worse, while the investment class has been saved from feeling the effects by the bailouts.  As more states tighten their belts and more people get laid off, there is going to be anger like we haven’t seen in a long, long time.  There is a real disconnection between working men and women and our upper classes.  We have corrected nothing and restoring the status quo is a recipe for disaster.
•    Iraq – The reality here is that it is going to get bloody and there is nothing we can or should do.  The “Awakening” is over and the results for the Sunnis were not what was hoped for.  Now we will see a great deal of violence as each party jostles for position in the coming power grab.  This is inevitable and the Iraqis will have to sort this out among themselves if they are ever going to stand on their own two feet.  Delaying our withdrawal will simply delay the inevitable and get us caught up in the middle of their local power politics.  Al-Qaeda will be a minor player and should be of little concern as Iraqis dual for power and control, use Al-Qaeda if it suits their means, and then abandon them when they secure power.
•    Afghanistan – The reality here is this will also get a lot bloodier.  As we step up our efforts to eradicate drugs and empower a very corrupt government, we are going to be in the middle of tribal warfare.  I have mixed emotions here as I see that if we are willing to fight the hard fight, the fight that should have been fought seven years ago (thank you Dick and George), it is going to be another 10-15 years before Afghanistan is stable.  I really wonder if it is worth it.  I guess I would have to say no since if I don’t want to sacrifice my own son for this endeavor, then I cannot justify sacrificing anyone else’s.
•    Health Care – This one is a no-brainer.  Without a single payer, government option, nothing is going to get accomplished.  I have written at length about the business model of health care insurers and nothing is going to fundamentally change that until you take profit out of health insurance (See Health Care Wars and Scare Tactics and Reinventing the Wheel – Universal Health Care).  We need a pared down Medicare plan for everyone as a choice with the ability to add additional services and benefits by piggybacking private insurance.  That really is their only role and the only place where profit makes sense in health care.
•    Energy – I don’t think we are getting anywhere fast on a real energy policy that will change our country in a fundamental way.  As soon as gas prices dropped, our eye was off the ball and the forces of the status quo swiftly reasserted them selves in our choices.  But the reality here is that this is the lull in the storm, but in the meantime we are losing precious time.  The cap and trade bill to reduce our dependence on polluting fuel sources is being watered down by special interests invested in the status quo.  If you are not even going to make a dent, why bother.
•    Infrastructure – On the infrastructure side, there may still be hope if I am right about the economy.  If I am, and the economy will stagnate further and a massive infusion of money this time actually focused on rebuilding our infrastructure is our only hope.  It provides good jobs in the short term, and is a long-term investment in a viable economy in the future.  I am not the only one who sees this no brainer.  See Bob Herbert’s column in the New York Times on Tuesday (Our Crumbling Foundation).

I don’t know about the rest of you, but it seems like we are being lulled asleep again and we are failing to make the big changes that are necessary to really change our direction.  I almost feel like we have lost our momentum for change and the Republicans will be allowed to obstruct any real progress as we lose our sense of urgency.  I hope I am wrong.

The answer to that question depends on which century you live in, the 20th, or the 21st.  If you are in the 20th century and we are a rich nation that can afford to fight on in Iraq till we “win” without any sacrifice by your citizens in terms of taxes or a draft then John McCain is your man.  If you think trickle down economics works, McCain is your man.  If you think the way forward in our tough economic times is lower taxes and less regulation (except the markets), without major government involvement, then again John McCain is your man.  If you think the market place will solve our energy and healthcare problems, John McCain is your man.  If you like the 80’s approach to the world and Russia, John McCain is your man.  If you think the same Republican infrastructure of power and policy are going to change things, John is your man.

On the other hand if you think we have done what we can in Iraq and we need to start nation building at home, Barack Obama is your man.  If you think we need to take a more inclusive approach in approaching challenges throughout the world, Barrack Obama is your man.  If you believe that government is a big part to play in our energy future, Barack Obama is your man.  If you believe that some sacrifice by you and all Americans is necessary to get America back on track, Bararck Obama is your man.  If you believe that healthcare is not going to be solved by deregulating, and government has a major role to play in leveling the playing field, Barack Obama is your man.  If you believe that government will have to invest in infrastructure, R&D, and energy then Barack Obama is your man.  If you think our solutions to the problems we are facing in this 21st century will take new approaches not based upon 20th century thinking, Barack is your man.

So the answer to the question depends on which century you are living in.  Which is it?

So if we are so stupid, Mr. Smarty Pants, what are your answers?  I am so glad you asked, because as I have said before, the answers are easy, implementing them will be the bitch.  They will be a bitch because there are so many vested interests that will lose when the status quo is upset.  Nobody likes change and the unknown.  In the future we will all gain, but it is the shortsighted pocketbook mentality that drives a nation of stupid people.  That would be ours right now.  So for what it is worth, here are the solutions.  Note, I didn’t say my solutions.  These are the solutions and they as obvious as the nose on your face.  But they will require self-discipline, pain, and sacrifice in the short term, which is something this nation has been sorely lacking in:

Energy and Global Warming – T. Boone Pickens gets it.  We can quibble about whether we move to natural gas or electric for our trucks (and he does have a point here), but overall the message is simple.  We need a massive investment in alternative energy NOW.  We also need massive investments and streamlining of the regulatory process for nuclear energy.  This is not some energy credits that will allow the marketplace to work its wonder in 20 years or so.  This is a massive government investment to get there as soon as possible.  Price of gasoline needs to be stabilized at between $4 to $5 per gallon with the excess funneled into this program.  Every day we wait and quibble about drilling or pumping the National Strategic Petroleum Reserve are days we further our own demise.

Healthcare – Single payer system.  What is so hard about that?  Say it slowly.  It does not mean doctors work for the government (in England they do, in Japan they do not).  It does not mean you have to be screened before you see a specialist (some countries do, others don’t).  It can mean whatever we what it too, but we need to take profit out of denying people health care.  It won’t cure the problem of rising healthcare costs, but it will reduce it by at least 30% as we take the private for profit boys out of the loop.  If  healthcare is a moral obligation, this is the only way to get there.  I hate to break to those that thinks government is most inefficient way to provide healthcare, but Medicare is the cheapest system for administration in the United States (5% versus 30% or more for private insurers).

Taxes – Everybody has to pay their fair share.  That means businesses too.  We need to realign taxes so we can actually say that.  We have to make massive investments in our future (R&D, education, infrastructure, etc.).  Taxes are not going to get less but they can be spread so that businesses do not get a free ride on the backs of middle America who are losing ground on their life style.  Here is an idea that will never float:  Value Added Tax.  We only pay taxes on what we spend.  If we consume more, we get taxed more.  You don’t want to pay taxes, don’t buy anything.  Income tax and record keeping would be a thing of the past.  Maybe it won’t work, but let’s have a real discussion without the vested interests fighting to maintain their protected positions.

Economy – Clearly we can’t continue cutting taxes, especially when 2/3 of all business don’t pay any according to a GAO study.  It is not stimulating our economy.  What will stimulate it are jobs with people with spending money to buy things, preferably things produced here.  That would require two things, a hard look at our trade agreements to make sure they give us a level playing field; don’t penalize our producers for paying minimum wage or complying with environmental regulations.  And the second would be a massive investment program by the government in alternate energy and infrastructure.  You heard me right,  spend to earn.   There are some really good studies out there on just what kind of a balanced spending plan would help the most, but I have to tell you, cutting taxes is on the bottom of every list.

Education – We need a national curriculum and a national test.  Local school board’s ability to water down educational requirements and teach junk science that suits their religious purposes is hurting the most important resource we have, human capital.  Advanced education has to be available to all who can qualify which means a whole lot more funding of higher education institutions.  Four years of college at a state university should be free.  We should be tailoring our aid to students in career fields that will help our country in the future (e.g. engineering, math, and science).  Everyone should have a liberal education including basic classics, art, and music.  The truly great thoughts are captured in great literature.

Military and Foreign Affairs – The Georgia thing should have a focusing effect, but Americans are so easily frightened that the focus may be on the wrong thing.  John McMean comes out with a bellicose in your face approach to Russia which is what we did for the last 50 years, and he is characterized as showing his experience in foreign affairs.  The reality is that the French and the European Union have been trying to negotiate something while we are truly toothless following the John McMean politics of yesteryear.  John McMean’s approach to foreign affairs is a strong military.  It doesn’t work.  The best military in the world is the one you don’t have to use.  Times are a changing and we need to work with nations to resolve problems.  John McMean’s approach is to fight the problem with the problem, nationalism.  Armed conflicts are not going to solve the problem and will only bankrupt us.  The bottom line here is that we can scale back our military spending, especially on those high tech toys.  We have to engage other nations and only use our military for effect.  We have to look at places like Iraq and Afghanistan and wonder if that is where we want to use all our resources.  We have to look at Russia and think about what they have to lose with their power play.  Right now everybody is knee jerking to politics of old.  I think the Russians, if they continue this kind of behavior may find themselves way over extended and bogged down in local politics.  Anybody remember the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan?

So what we need is a new direction.  But when people are afraid they like to revert to what they know.  The trouble is what they know is failing them and it is becoming blatantly obvious.  Will they let go and try a new approach?  Only if America wants to be a power and a leader again.  Otherwise we can continue to pick leaders who offer us yesterday’s solution and we can continue to decline.  It’s up to you.