On the Contrary

For once Chris Mathews actually said something insightful.  After listening to both Democrats and Republicans on what we should do in Afghanistan he said, “Well I guess they have held those opinions for about 40 years.”  In other words nothing new since Vietnam and neither side is being really informed about the nature of Afghanistan.  We think in patterns that repeat.

My favorite was the argument that we need to support the commander on the ground.  The commander on the ground always wants more troops.  Generals want to win.  They didn’t get to be generals by being realistic about possibilities.  They got to be generals because they always had a “can do” attitude.  They can climb any mountain.  The guy who stood around asking, “but should we do it and is it worth the cost” is a retired Lt. Col.   John McCain has said we need to get on with giving General McChrystal want he wants.  But this is from the guy who thinks we could have won in Vietnam.  He still doesn’t get what that war was about and will fight it over and over again in present day wars.

I guess what is most frightening to me is to listen to the debate that is full of trite phrases:  “Americans will not abandon Afghans; we will not abandon the fight against Al Qaeda (they are turning the front on Al Qaeda into Afghanistan); we just need to protect the people.  Sadly what we are seeing is that our political leaders are one, not very bright, and two, have no clue about the realities of Afghanistan or its real strategic importance.  General Jones has estimated that there are about 100 Al Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan.  Now I see why we need 40,000 more troops:  That would be 400 Americans for every Al Qaeda operative.  And we still don’t have Bin Laden.

The real war there is with the Taliban.  The Taliban are not Al Qaeda, one being a international group of terrorists without a country that wants to destroy us and the other being an indigenous Afghan movement, albeit a distasteful one, that just wants us out of their country.  Do we really want to be in a civil war?  The reality was best described by Rory Stewart (Bill Moyers Journal):

“…..but if you’re an Afghan villager, you sit in your village, maybe in Southern Afghanistan, and one day the Taliban turn up. And you probably don’t like them very much, because they’re young, fanatical men, banging on about religion. But you might give them a cup of tea, they go away. Next day, maybe some Canadian soldiers turn up. Maybe they search your house. That makes you a little bit uncomfortable, but you give them a cup of tea, they go away. The next day, the Afghan police turn up. They may not be wearing uniforms, they’re waving guns around, they may be rude to your daughter. You give them a cup of tea, they go away. Basically, you want these people, by and large, to go away. Most Afghan villagers are finding themselves trapped in a very, very unpleasant battle between forces that they barely understand.”

So the debate that Washington is having is in general nonsensical.  What are our real strategic interests in Afghanistan?  What threat does it pose and how can we control it with a failing government and corrupt police force?  What can we really accomplish with a broken budget and waning public support?  My answer is not much unless we are willing to be there for 50 years and are you willing to send your child?  Looking at the recent death of eight American soldiers whose outpost was almost overrun by the Taliban, one has to wonder what the hell we are doing there.  This sounds so much like Vietnam it is ridiculous.  The Taliban occupy the neighboring towns and villages and to root them out we destroy the buildings and alienate the people.  This is just going swimmingly isn’t it?

Did it ever occur to anyone that the Taliban’s worst enemy is the Taliban?  These guys are great fighters but when they gain control of the country, they couldn’t do any better than the corrupt government that was in power that they displaced and they alienated most of the population.  If the Taliban wins, it is because the Afghans didn’t fight them and quite frankly, it is their war.  So let them have them and see how long they last.  We can always control the Al Qaeda problem as we did before and think about this:  If we are successful here Al-Qaeda will just move from Pakistan to say Somalia.  During this debate try to keep this in mind:  The Taliban are not Al Qaeda just like the Sunnis were not Al Qaeda.  Meanwhile the debate in Washington goes on as a rerun of Vietnam and the Iraq debates with no connection with the reality of Afghanistan.

Mike Murphy, a Republican Strategist on MSNBC’s Hardball, explained that if the Republicans continue on their nostalgic revisiting of the Reagan years, they will be entering the ice age.  He talks of modernizing the conservative religion and de-emphazing the social-family values that so invigorate the base.  He points out that they appeal to an ever shrinking demographic of White Men.

Now my thought is that the devil is in the details.  True, the present crop of Republicans are marginalizing themselves by aligning themselves with the radical right, but I have yet to hear any Republican present any rational approach to our problems utilizing conservative small government, low taxes, and minimal regulations that is believable.  It would be interesting if any did because then we could have a real debate about our way forward.  But to date even Republicans agree that they have not presented realistic alternatives for our future.  I think that if they did they would sound like the conservative Democrats.  Are we heading for one party?  Or are we heading for three parties, the radical right, moderate Republicans including conservative Democrats, and Progressive Democrats?

The news is being dominated by the food fight between the Palins and David Letterman about his comments referring to their daughter (which one is still in question).  I will grant you his joke was in very poor taste, but the Palin’s, with the media’s help, are turning this into a globally important battle.  Please!  Between the two of them, bad taste and poor judgment abounds and who cares.  Iran is having a monumental election, North Korea may react belligerently to U.N. Sanctions, and we are focusing on an overblown food fight that is all about political posturing?  No wonder we can’t have rational discussions about important issues and our future.

I listened to Chris Mathews describe how Palin might be a force in the Republican Party in the future after conservative Kathleen Parker laid out why she is not leadership material.  As always, Chris confuses form over substance.  She can take a pretty picture and with a script she can rile up the radical right, but based on her stand on issues and the thought she demonstrates behind them, there is no brain power there.  There is no there there.  We are in real trouble if we get another George Bush in office.

Note Vine/Wine will be late, but sometime this weekend.

“I have a theory that if the economy keeps tanking, the middle is going to get a lot more capitalist and get very angry.”  This was Chris Mathews on Thursday and all I could think of is the man is an idiot.  He, like the rest of the panicking hoards watching the Dow continue to drop, want instantaneous results on the economy (See It’s My Money and I Want It Now).  They still don’t want to understand that problems we face have been building up for 30 years, there are massive bad debts and over valued equity in the system, and the only way out is a slow deflation of our economy (we had better hope it is slow).

What most amazes me about his idea is that those capitalist policies that he thinks people will lean more toward are the same capitalist policies that Herbert, Let Them Fail, Hoover put in place in 1930 and ran unemployment up to 25%.  The idea of withdrawing and letting many of these banks and industries fail has a real chance of destroying our economy.  Hopefully, he has this exactly wrong, which would not be that uncommon for Mathews.  He has a tendency to run populist anarchist, meaning he reacts to how someone or something looks and overreacts emotionally instead of rational consideration of an issue (form over substance).

But what gives me hope is that Jon Stewart in his wonderful way of using humor to point out the inconsistency and illogic of the conventional wisdom.  He first took on the Economic pundits on CNBC in this wonderful piece on how their advice is the last thing you want to be listening to:

Then he got tired of listening to the moronic idea that the DOW reflects instantaneously whether the economic moves of the Obama administration are the correct ones:

The Driveway and My Trusty Friend Sophie On our Way to Get the Newspaper

It is my birthday today so I am giving myself a present by allowing myself to rant illogically much like the Republicans in California and in our Congress seem to do every day.  Usually, although unbeknownst by many readers, I try to be reasonable in my writing, but today I cast caution to the wind.  So here are my favorite hot button issues:

• A 2/3 majority for anything (60 votes in the case of the filibuster) except Constitutional amendments is patently stupid and puts the minority wing-nuts in the drivers seat.  It means change only happens when it is too late.
• Chris Mathews  (who drives me crazy because he can’t let a guest finish an answer) spouted a conventional wisdom the other day that may be totally wrong.  He said that if the stimulus package works the Democrats win and if it fails, the Republicans win and will be back in 2010.  For him it is black and white, but I don’t think so.  If the economy has not recovered in 2010 there is a third possibility:  The voters will know that the Democrats are trying something new and they have been hamstrung every step of the way by the Republicans trying to reinvent the wonderful Bush years.  They will finally give the Democrats the majorities to get something done.
• It amazes me that the ditto heads on the cable news outlets continue to echo the Republican talking points instead of bringing in real economists to have a debate about our policy direction.  Only MSNBC seems to have recognized the absolute hypocrisy of many of the Republican statements and is starting to point them out.  It might just be healthy for the country if the news media gave up on their attempt to be unbiased by allowing ridiculous statements to stand and just started laughing at them as David Schuster did the other day.  Perspective is the heart of finding truth.
• Eric Holder is going to visit Guantanamo to get a first hand view of the conditions down there.  Raise your hand if you think he is going to get the real story.  Back in my Viet Nam days I remember the dog and pony shows that were prepared for visiting dignitaries so they would cause us as little trouble as possible.  I guess he has to say he has been there, but anybody think a planned visit and briefing by those who have an agenda to keep it open is going to get at the truth is smoking weed.
• This one I am really going to get in trouble for.  Most of you have probably read about the Muslim man who beheaded his wife in their TV studio in Orchard Park, New York, after she had presented him with divorce papers.  This is doubly ironic because they had established their TV station so show how modern Islam could be and many think this was an honor killing (by the way this is what Pakistan legitimized when it allowed the Sharia Law to be implemented in Swat Valley).  But I can’t help thinking that this reflects on all men in more primitive societies (read religions here because women are usually subservient to men) and sometimes (actually a lot) reflects on them in our own modern society.  That is that many men are really very insecure little people with big egos.  In this world women must be owned because we don’t have the courage to let them make their own choices.  Women are hated because they can reject you and hurt you deeply, therefore must be controlled at all times.   I guess being loved or not loved for who you are is just too risky a proposition for many.
• Forget bipartisanship when the other side just has it wrong.  It is truly amazing that after eight years of failed policies (deregulate and cut taxes) we even consider these arguments anymore.  President Obama has it right.  Learn to be polite, conciliatory, and tough.  Don’t let the attempt to compromise with failed ideas obstruct the path forward, but don’t ever loose your civility.
• Does anybody recognize what is happening in this country?  We have a President who can think and talk and is out there trying to find solutions to our problems.  After eight years of mental constipation enabled by the Republicans in the Senate (who define the word mental constipation), we actually have a President who is trying to do something besides waiting for the invisible hand of the market place to solve all our woes.
• Did you ever notice that public employees are usually the first to suffer in a budget crisis?  Those much-maligned public servants are the first to subsidize budget shortfalls by furloughs and lay offs.  If public workers are asked to give up 10% of their pay to solve a budget crisis, isn’t it fair to ask private citizens to join the fray with a 10% tax increase?  Aren’t we all in this together?
• Local control of curriculums in our schools is stupid and has led to the dumbing down of our kids by religious zealots.  We need a national curriculum and national standards.  When religious dogma conflicts with scientific findings we need to understand they are not the same.  One is based on rational thought, checking and testing, and open debate through a formal process, the other is magic based upon beliefs that do not stand the test of examination and inquiry.
• Finally get over it.  The bankruptcy courts should be able to adjust mortgage rates.  Sometimes the good of the country is more important than the good of investors.
• One last thought.  Some of you may have seen my pictures of the beautiful place where I live.  But there are a few drawbacks.  For the last week it has been snowing continuously and if I want to stay connected to the world, every 30 minutes or so I have to go out and spray off my internet and television dishes with the hose, not to mention plowing the drive way (1/4 mile long) every six hours or so to stay ahead of the snow.  San Diego is starting to look really attractive.  Andy, you will let me bunk with you won’t you and you have room for my surf board?  I can party hardy until at least 8:30 PM or so.

Okay I feel better. Tomorrow I will try to be more rational.  Or maybe I will just take the day off.  I plan to spend the day in San Francisco and go out to dinner.  As my good friend Mike Ward, who is fighting cancer, likes to say, it is a good day to be alive.  Yes it is.